Uzhydromet has released its preliminary outlook for the summer season, along with a detailed forecast for June and a historical overview of the month's weather patterns over time.
June Forecast
This year, summer in Uzbekistan will kick off with volatile yet moderately warm weather, according to meteorologists.
From June 1 to June 3, isolated areas may experience brief showers and thunderstorms, accompanied by wind gusts reaching 15–20 meters per second. During this initial period, ambient temperatures will hover between +15°C and +20°C at night, and rise to +30°C to +35°C during the day.
For the remainder of the month, nighttime temperatures are expected to hold steady within the +18°C to +23°C range. Daytime temperatures will fluctuate between a comfortable +29°C to +34°C and a hotter +34°C to +39°C. However, northern regions, the far south, and desert zones will see mercury levels spike to +40°C or +42°C on certain days.
Brief rain showers and sporadic thunderstorms are also predicted during the first half of the month.
Summer 2026 Outlook
According to the latest bulletin from the Climate Prediction Center (USA), the first clear indicators of a developing El Niño phenomenon—characterized by a sharp surge in Pacific Ocean water temperatures—were already recorded in May 2026. This cyclical event typically triggers a subsequent rise in global atmospheric temperatures across the planet.
While the global climate system is currently classified as neutral, ocean water temperatures are rising at an exceptionally rapid pace. Meteorologists explain that this trend underpins the projections for a scorching summer in 2026 issued by the world's leading seasonal forecasting centers.
The climate review notes that summers in Uzbekistan are traditionally dry and hot. However, over the past 15 years, a steady, long-term upward trend in average summer temperatures has become firmly established.
According to Uzhydromet’s preliminary assessment, which integrates models from global forecasting hubs, the average temperature for this year's summer season is projected to exceed the historical climate norm.
Throughout the summer months, the country is expected to endure prolonged heatwaves, with temperatures hovering near historic extremes. During the peak of these hot spells, the mercury could climb to +42°C or +44°C, while northern regions, the far south, and desert zones could experience spikes reaching +45°C to +47°C in some areas.
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