In Uzbekistan, the total births in 2025 fell to 879,600 for the first time since 2020, the National Statistics Committee said. To 2024, this figure decreased by 46,800, or 5.1%. For comparison, in 2024, the birth rate declined by 3.7%, or 35,500.

While, the number of deaths stood at 177,100, approximately 2,700 more than the previous year. The natural population increase was 702,500 (743,400 in 2024 and 789,200 in 2023).

As of January 1, 2026, Uzbekistan’s permanent population surpassed 38,236,700, an increase of 1.8% year-on-year. The previous year, the increase was 2%, and by 2.2% in 2023.

Last year, the birth rate was 23.2 per thousand, and the death rate was 4.7 per thousand.

Possible cause of birth rate decline

the current decline in births is most likely related not to changes in reproductive behavior, but to the demographic structure. According to him, small generations born in the late 1990s, when the country was already experiencing a decline in the birth rate, are now entering childbearing age.

Alternative estimates indicate that the total fertility rate remains high—around 3.2, which is consistent with the level that supports population growth. The age at marriage has not increased significantly, and there are no signs of a sharp decline in childbearing. "We are essentially seeing the delayed effect of the 1990s birth rate decline, which is now manifesting itself in absolute figures," the economist explained, noting "an echo of the demographic trough of the 1990s."

Fertility data for 2025 have not yet been published. Therefore, according to Kholboev, it is currently impossible to definitively determine whether the decline in the birth rate is primarily due to the demographic structure (a smaller number of childbearing-age generations) or to changing reproductive attitudes.